Tuesday's announcement that Senator Arlen Specter was switching parties should not necessarily be considered great news for Democrats. Other than the fact that there's one more "D" in the official Senate Directory, and that Specter successfully avoided a drubbing in the Pennsylvania Republican primary at the hands of the Club for Growth's candidate, President Obama risks losing a friendly vote in the Senate.
In the 2008 presidential election, Obama received 55% of the General Election vote. The only Republican with any chance of winning the general election in 2010 was Specter, and he couldn't get out of his own primary. Specter isn't switching to the Democratic party because the party has gone too far to the right. Specter is switching because, at 79 years old, he knows it's the only way to continue his political career. Unfortunately, Democrats fell for the head fake and welcomed Specter with open arms.
Specter's move was pure political genius.
If Specter remained a Republican, he loses the Republican primary to Pat Toomey. If recent polling is any indication, the race wouldn't even be close. Some have had the margin as high as 20 percent!
Toomey is simply too conservative for Pennsylvania. Toomey is Santorum-light, and we all know what happened to Santorum. The same would have happened to Toomey. Obama would have pulled out all the stops to win the seat, which the Dems would have easily done. What does Obama get? A loyal Democrat who votes with the President whenever he asks.
Instead, Obama and Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, rush to welcome Specter to the party. Specter reported Obama and Reid's commitment of support for his 2010 election, while Specter was pledging his continued independence from either party. If Specter appreciates the president's support for furthering his political career, he has a funny way of showing it.
Specter may very well get a sixth term, but the president could surely have gotten a better deal. Rather than Specter telling Democrats not to expect an automatic vote for Obama's agenda, Pennsylvanians could give him a vote he could count on. He won't get that from Specter.
A popular president in a blue state could have done better than Arlen Specter under these conditions. There's always the threat that the fence-sitting, two-time party switcher, might attempt the hat trick.
Update: Read "The Runaway" in The New Republic.
